1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 26

Manisa F.K.–Bandırmaspor

3–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 18 February 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'BandırmasporK. Alıcı (assist: T. Kehinde)
58'BandırmasporJ. Amaral
60'Manisa F.K.A. Vargas (assist: Ayberk Karapo)
64'Manisa F.K.Loïs Diony (assist: A. Vargas)
90'Manisa F.K.Y. Benrahou (assist: Loïs Diony)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Bandırmaspor
22	Shots	6
10	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
6	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
69%	Possession	31%
539	Passes	247
469	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 1.49 · Bandırmaspor 1.24. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Manisa F.K. 22 · Bandırmaspor 6; on target 10 and 4.
Manisa F.K. kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

H. Ulker→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.3%: “Manisa F.K. to win”. Second comes “Bandırmaspor to win” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Manisa F.K., 1.24 for Bandırmaspor.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,252 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win42.3%

Draw27.4%

Bandırmaspor to win30.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time34.3%

Level at half-time42.7%

Bandırmaspor lead at half-time23.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level77.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Bandırmaspor ahead65.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1252 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 12Actual: 8
Bandırmaspor: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 4Actual: 6
Bandırmaspor: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.49

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bandırmaspor concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bandırmaspor score1.24

Attack: Bandırmaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–19.9%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.