1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 26

Serik Spor–Çorum FK

2–3

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 18 February 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Serik SporJ. Topalli (assist: M. Nalepa)
32'Çorum FKM. Thiam (penalty)
39'Serik SporC. Demir (assist: A. Martynov)
49'Çorum FKB. Coban (assist: Ü. Ergün)
52'Çorum FKB. Coban (assist: M. Thiam)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Serik Spor		Çorum FK
6	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	10
1	Offsides	2
37%	Possession	63%
264	Passes	444
182	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Serik Spor 1.15 · Çorum FK 1.56. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Serik Spor 6 · Çorum FK 11; on target 4 and 6.
Çorum FK kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

G. Hasova→

5.38

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.3%: “Çorum FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Serik Spor, 1.56 for Çorum FK.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (X2 — draw or Çorum FK win).
These values were computed from 1,250 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Serik Spor to win26.6%

Draw27.0%

Çorum FK to win46.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Serik Spor lead at half-time18.3%

Level at half-time40.9%

Çorum FK lead at half-time40.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Serik Spor ahead or level59.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Çorum FK ahead81.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1250 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Serik Spor: at least 11Actual: 13
Çorum FK: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Serik Spor: at least 2Actual: 1
Çorum FK: at least 5Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Serik Spor score1.15

Attack: Serik Spor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Çorum FK concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Çorum FK score1.56

Attack: Çorum FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Serik Spor's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–210.2%0–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.