1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 26

Hatayspor–Iğdır FK

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Tuesday, 17 February 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mersin Stadyumu, Mersin

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Iğdır FKL. Bacuna (assist: F. Loshaj)
13'Iğdır FKG. Bruno (assist: L. Bacuna)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hatayspor		Iğdır FK
6	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	8
3	Shots inside the box	11
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	9
1	Offsides	2
38%	Possession	62%
282	Passes	479
212	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hatayspor 0.87 · Iğdır FK 1.84. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Hatayspor 6 · Iğdır FK 15; on target 1 and 8.
Iğdır FK kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

R. Coskunses→

6.33

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.4%: “Iğdır FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.87 for Hatayspor, 1.84 for Iğdır FK.
The highest double chance value is 84.2% (X2 — draw or Iğdır FK win).
These values were computed from 1,247 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hatayspor to win15.8%

Draw23.8%

Iğdır FK to win60.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

20	Fouls	14

5	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Hatayspor lead at half-time13.6%

Level at half-time38.7%

Iğdır FK lead at half-time47.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Hatayspor ahead or level52.3%

12 — not level at half-time61.3%

X2 — level or Iğdır FK ahead86.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1247 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hatayspor: at least 10Actual: 20
Iğdır FK: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Hatayspor: at least 2Actual: 1
Iğdır FK: at least 5Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hatayspor score0.87

Attack: Hatayspor score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Iğdır FK concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Iğdır FK score1.84

Attack: Iğdır FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hatayspor concede 44% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%0–211.6%0–111.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.