1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 25

Pendikspor–Sarıyer

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 February 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'PendiksporJ. Clarke-Harris (assist: F. Doğan)
19'PendiksporĐ. Denić (assist: Thuram)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pendikspor		Sarıyer
14	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	2
3	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
565	Passes	415
498	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pendikspor 1.76 · Sarıyer 0.89. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Pendikspor 14 · Sarıyer 8; on target 4 and 1.
Pendikspor kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

D. Celik→

5.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.9%: “Pendikspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for Pendikspor, 0.89 for Sarıyer.
The highest double chance value is 82.6% (1X — Pendikspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,246 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pendikspor to win57.9%

Draw24.8%

Sarıyer to win17.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	9

7	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Pendikspor win or draw82.6%

12 — any result other than a draw75.2%

X2 — draw or Sarıyer win42.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.8%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Pendikspor lead at half-time31.3%

Level at half-time46.7%

Sarıyer lead at half-time22.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Pendikspor ahead or level78.0%

12 — not level at half-time53.3%

X2 — level or Sarıyer ahead68.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1246 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pendikspor: at least 13Actual: 17
Sarıyer: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Pendikspor: at least 4Actual: 2
Sarıyer: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pendikspor score1.76

Attack: Pendikspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sarıyer's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sarıyer score0.89

Attack: Sarıyer score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pendikspor concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%1–011.7%2–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1246 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 24 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.