1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 25

Bodrum FK–Keçiörengücü

4–3

HT 3–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 February 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Bodrum FKAli Habeşoğlu (assist: E. Bilsel)
20'Bodrum FKD. Hotić
25'KeçiörengücüM. Diouf (assist: F. Ezeh)
37'Bodrum FKAli Habeşoğlu (assist: D. Hotić)
45'KeçiörengücüM. Diouf (assist: J. Fernandes)
70'Bodrum FKD. Hotić (assist: M. Yılmaz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodrum FK		Keçiörengücü
15	Shots	16
7	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	5
3	Offsides	3
53%	Possession	47%
342	Passes	285
265	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodrum FK 1.87 · Keçiörengücü 1.03. On the pitch: 4-3.
Shots Bodrum FK 15 · Keçiörengücü 16; on target 7 and 6.

Referee

O. Aksu→

4.25

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.1%: “Bodrum FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.87 for Bodrum FK, 1.03 for Keçiörengücü.
The highest double chance value is 81.0% (1X — Bodrum FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,244 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodrum FK to win57.1%

Draw24.0%

Keçiörengücü to win19.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

90'KeçiörengücüO. Çalışkan (assist: H. Bilgiç)

15	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bodrum FK win or draw81.0%

12 — any result other than a draw76.0%

X2 — draw or Keçiörengücü win42.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.0%).

First half

Actual: 3–2

Bodrum FK lead at half-time45.0%

Level at half-time38.3%

Keçiörengücü lead at half-time16.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodrum FK ahead or level83.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Keçiörengücü ahead55.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1244 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodrum FK: at least 9Actual: 15
Keçiörengücü: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Bodrum FK: at least 4Actual: 2
Keçiörengücü: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodrum FK score1.87

Attack: Bodrum FK score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Keçiörengücü's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Keçiörengücü score1.03

Attack: Keçiörengücü score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Bodrum FK concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–111.0%2–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1244 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 94 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.