1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 24

Manisa F.K.–Boluspor

4–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 February 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

-5'Manisa F.K.B. Adekanye · red card
9'Manisa F.K.Ayberk Karapo (assist: Y. Talum)
39'BolusporR. Akanbi (assist: M. Balburdia)
53'Manisa F.K.Loïs Diony (assist: Ayberk Karapo)
63'BolusporM. Balburdia · red card
81'Manisa F.K.

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Boluspor
13	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
283	Passes	432
209	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 1.30 · Boluspor 1.58. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Manisa F.K. 13 · Boluspor 11; on target 6 and 3.
Boluspor kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

M. Metoglu→

4.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “Boluspor to win”. Second comes “Manisa F.K. to win” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Manisa F.K., 1.58 for Boluspor.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,235 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win30.3%

Draw26.6%

Boluspor to win43.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

M. Cissokho (assist: A. Vargas)

88'Manisa F.K.Loïs Diony (assist: Y. Talum)

17	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. win or draw56.9%

12 — any result other than a draw73.4%

X2 — draw or Boluspor win69.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.6%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time25.9%

Level at half-time40.6%

Boluspor lead at half-time33.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level66.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Boluspor ahead74.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1235 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 13Actual: 17
Boluspor: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 3Actual: 4
Boluspor: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.30

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Boluspor concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Boluspor score1.58

Attack: Boluspor score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–210.0%2–18.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1235 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 129 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.