1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 24

Serik Spor–Iğdır FK

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 February 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Iğdır FKWenderson Tsunami (assist: F. Loshaj)
45'Iğdır FKA. Çankaya (assist: G. Kaya)
67'Serik SporS. Dilli (assist: I. Sadygov)
86'Iğdır FKG. Bruno (assist: G. Kaya)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Serik Spor		Iğdır FK
9	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	10
2	Offsides	3
43%	Possession	57%
333	Passes	445
254	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Serik Spor 1.10 · Iğdır FK 1.48. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Serik Spor 9 · Iğdır FK 18; on target 3 and 6.
Iğdır FK kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Melih Aldemir, Türkiye→

4.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.4%: “Iğdır FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for Serik Spor, 1.48 for Iğdır FK.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (X2 — draw or Iğdır FK win).
These values were computed from 1,231 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Serik Spor to win26.7%

Draw27.9%

Iğdır FK to win45.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Serik Spor lead at half-time18.7%

Level at half-time41.6%

Iğdır FK lead at half-time39.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Serik Spor ahead or level60.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Iğdır FK ahead81.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1231 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Serik Spor: at least 11Actual: 10
Iğdır FK: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Serik Spor: at least 3Actual: 3
Iğdır FK: at least 5Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Serik Spor score1.10

Attack: Serik Spor score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Iğdır FK concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Iğdır FK score1.48

Attack: Iğdır FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Serik Spor concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%0–110.4%1–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.