1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 22

Sivasspor–Amed

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 January 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'SivassporV. Ethemi (assist: A. Malle)
57'AmedMbaye Diagne (assist: Dia Saba)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sivasspor		Amed
13	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	7
3	Offsides	2
40%	Possession	60%
295	Passes	436
218	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sivasspor 1.20 · Amed 1.45. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Sivasspor 13 · Amed 10; on target 3 and 3.
Amed kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

A. Akarsu→

4.65

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.1%: “Amed to win”. Second comes “Sivasspor to win” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Sivasspor, 1.45 for Amed.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,214 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sivasspor to win30.1%

Draw27.9%

Amed to win42.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sivasspor win or draw57.9%

12 — any result other than a draw72.1%

X2 — draw or Amed win69.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.9%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sivasspor lead at half-time23.7%

Level at half-time44.6%

Amed lead at half-time31.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Sivasspor ahead or level68.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or Amed ahead76.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1214 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sivasspor: at least 10Actual: 10
Amed: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Sivasspor: at least 3Actual: 1
Amed: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sivasspor score1.20

Attack: Sivasspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amed concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amed score1.45

Attack: Amed score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Sivasspor's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–29.8%0–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1214 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 20 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.