1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 22

Serik Spor–Esenler Erokspor

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

44'Esenler EroksporL. Skvortsov (own goal)
60'Esenler EroksporÖ. Beyaz (assist: E. Alic)
71'Serik SporJoseph Okoro · red card
73'Esenler EroksporG. Kanga (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Serik Spor		Esenler Erokspor
3	Shots	29
1	Shots on target	11
1	Shots inside the box	15
9	Goalkeeper saves	1
0	Corners	9
2	Offsides	0
22%	Possession	78%
183	Passes	651
106	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Serik Spor 1.13 · Esenler Erokspor 1.58. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Serik Spor 3 · Esenler Erokspor 29; on target 1 and 11.
Esenler Erokspor kept the ball more (78%).

Referee

F. Tokail→

4.48

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.4%: “Esenler Erokspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Serik Spor, 1.58 for Esenler Erokspor.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (X2 — draw or Esenler Erokspor win).
These values were computed from 1,208 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Serik Spor to win25.7%

Draw26.9%

Esenler Erokspor to win47.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

4	Yellow cards	0

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Serik Spor lead at half-time18.5%

Level at half-time40.8%

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time40.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Serik Spor ahead or level59.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Esenler Erokspor ahead81.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1208 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Serik Spor: at least 12Actual: 11
Esenler Erokspor: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Serik Spor: at least 3
Esenler Erokspor: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Serik Spor score1.13

Attack: Serik Spor score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.58

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Serik Spor's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–210.3%0–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.