1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 22

Adana Demirspor–Bandırmaspor

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 23 January 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'BandırmasporDouglas Tanque (assist: J. Amaral)
34'BandırmasporJ. Amaral (assist: D. Ndongala)
90'BandırmasporA. Badji (assist: Enes Aydın)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Adana Demirspor		Bandırmaspor
8	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	4
2	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	2
2	Offsides	5
45%	Possession	55%
461	Passes	555
381	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Adana Demirspor 0.62 · Bandırmaspor 2.50. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Adana Demirspor 8 · Bandırmaspor 11; on target 3 and 4.
Bandırmaspor kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

A. Albayrak→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.5%: “Bandırmaspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.62 for Adana Demirspor, 2.50 for Bandırmaspor.
The highest double chance value is 94.0% (X2 — draw or Bandırmaspor win).
These values were computed from 1,207 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Adana Demirspor to win6.0%

Draw14.5%

Bandırmaspor to win79.5%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Adana Demirspor lead at half-time6.0%

Level at half-time31.8%

Bandırmaspor lead at half-time62.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Adana Demirspor ahead or level37.7%

12 — not level at half-time68.2%

X2 — level or Bandırmaspor ahead94.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1207 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Adana Demirspor: at least 9Actual: 6
Bandırmaspor: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Adana Demirspor: at least 3Actual: 1
Bandırmaspor: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Adana Demirspor score0.62

Attack: Adana Demirspor score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bandırmaspor concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bandırmaspor score2.50

Attack: Bandırmaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Adana Demirspor concede 129% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–214.3%0–312.0%0–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.