1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 21

Iğdır FK–Sakaryaspor

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 19 January 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'Iğdır FKL. Bacuna (assist: G. Vural)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Iğdır FK		Sakaryaspor
19	Shots	14
8	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	7
12	Corners	5
3	Offsides	4
64%	Possession	36%
480	Passes	266
408	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Iğdır FK 1.92 · Sakaryaspor 1.01. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Iğdır FK 19 · Sakaryaspor 14; on target 8 and 5.
Iğdır FK kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Ilker Yasin Avci, Türkiye→

4.40

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.8%: “Iğdır FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.92 for Iğdır FK, 1.01 for Sakaryaspor.
The highest double chance value is 82.2% (1X — Iğdır FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,204 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Iğdır FK to win58.8%

Draw23.4%

Sakaryaspor to win17.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Iğdır FK lead at half-time42.9%

Level at half-time39.3%

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time17.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Iğdır FK ahead or level82.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or Sakaryaspor ahead57.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1204 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Iğdır FK: at least 12Actual: 13
Sakaryaspor: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Iğdır FK: at least 5Actual: 12
Sakaryaspor: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Iğdır FK score1.92

Attack: Iğdır FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sakaryaspor score1.01

Attack: Sakaryaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Iğdır FK concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%2–111.0%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.