1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 21

Erzurumspor FK–Amed

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 January 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu, Erzurum

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

63'Erzurumspor FKE. Tozlu (assist: G. Crociata)
80'AmedKahraman Demirtaş · red card
90'Erzurumspor FKBrandon Baiye (assist: C. Sylla)
90+1'AmedM. Uçar · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Erzurumspor FK		Amed
11	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
524	Passes	374
447	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Erzurumspor FK 1.53 · Amed 0.99. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Erzurumspor FK 11 · Amed 9; on target 5 and 2.
Erzurumspor FK kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Erdem Mertoglu, Türkiye→

4.38

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.3%: “Erzurumspor FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Erzurumspor FK, 0.99 for Amed.
The highest double chance value is 76.9% (1X — Erzurumspor FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,201 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Erzurumspor FK to win49.3%

Draw27.6%

Amed to win23.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	2

First half

Actual: 0–0

Erzurumspor FK lead at half-time35.8%

Level at half-time44.5%

Amed lead at half-time19.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Erzurumspor FK ahead or level80.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Amed ahead64.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1201 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Erzurumspor FK: at least 11Actual: 7
Amed: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Erzurumspor FK: at least 3Actual: 1
Amed: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Erzurumspor FK score1.53

Attack: Erzurumspor FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amed concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amed score0.99

Attack: Amed score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Erzurumspor FK concede 45% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.99 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–011.6%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.