1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 21

Esenler Erokspor–Vanspor FK

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Esenler Erokspor		Vanspor FK
13	Shots	4
7	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	7
6	Corners	1
3	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
508	Passes	303
400	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Esenler Erokspor 1.61 · Vanspor FK 1.04. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Esenler Erokspor 13 · Vanspor FK 4; on target 7 and 1.
Esenler Erokspor kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Batuhan Kolak, Türkiye→

6.83

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.1%: “Esenler Erokspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Esenler Erokspor, 1.04 for Vanspor FK.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (1X — Esenler Erokspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,200 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Esenler Erokspor to win50.1%

Draw26.7%

Vanspor FK to win23.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time35.4%

Level at half-time43.1%

Vanspor FK lead at half-time21.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Esenler Erokspor ahead or level78.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Vanspor FK ahead64.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1200 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Esenler Erokspor: at least 11Actual: 12
Vanspor FK: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

Esenler Erokspor: at least 3Actual: 6
Vanspor FK: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.61

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Vanspor FK concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vanspor FK score1.04

Attack: Vanspor FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–010.5%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.