1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 20

Sivasspor–Erzurumspor FK

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 January 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'SivassporÖ. Yiğiter · red card
41'Erzurumspor FKB. Keser
90'Erzurumspor FKG. Crociata (assist: M. Rodriguez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sivasspor		Erzurumspor FK
6	Shots	16
1	Shots on target	5
2	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	1
0	Offsides	2
41%	Possession	59%
367	Passes	537
301	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sivasspor 0.95 · Erzurumspor FK 1.27. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Sivasspor 6 · Erzurumspor FK 16; on target 1 and 5.
Erzurumspor FK kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Adnan Deniz Kayatepe, Türkiye→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “Erzurumspor FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.95 for Sivasspor, 1.27 for Erzurumspor FK.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (X2 — draw or Erzurumspor FK win).
These values were computed from 1,194 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sivasspor to win26.5%

Draw30.5%

Erzurumspor FK to win43.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Sivasspor lead at half-time21.0%

Level at half-time49.6%

Erzurumspor FK lead at half-time29.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Sivasspor ahead or level70.6%

12 — not level at half-time50.4%

X2 — level or Erzurumspor FK ahead79.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1194 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sivasspor: at least 11Actual: 10
Erzurumspor FK: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

Sivasspor: at least 4Actual: 4
Erzurumspor FK: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sivasspor score0.95

Attack: Sivasspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Erzurumspor FK concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Erzurumspor FK score1.27

Attack: Erzurumspor FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sivasspor concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%0–113.1%0–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.