1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 20

Sarıyer–Iğdır FK

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 January 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 35%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Iğdır FKG. Bruno · red card
87'SarıyerMarcos Silva (assist: M. Camara)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sarıyer		Iğdır FK
16	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	5
5	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
389	Passes	415
319	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sarıyer 1.29 · Iğdır FK 1.30. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Sarıyer 16 · Iğdır FK 10; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

Alper Akarsu, Türkiye→

3.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.0%: “Iğdır FK to win”. Second comes “Sarıyer to win” at 35.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Sarıyer, 1.30 for Iğdır FK.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,192 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sarıyer to win35.4%

Draw28.5%

Iğdır FK to win36.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sarıyer lead at half-time27.2%

Level at half-time44.6%

Iğdır FK lead at half-time28.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Sarıyer ahead or level71.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or Iğdır FK ahead72.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1192 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sarıyer: at least 10Actual: 10
Iğdır FK: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Sarıyer: at least 3Actual: 3
Iğdır FK: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sarıyer score1.29

Attack: Sarıyer score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Iğdır FK concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Iğdır FK score1.30

Attack: Iğdır FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sarıyer's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–28.9%0–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.