1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 20

Adana Demirspor–Esenler Erokspor

0–5

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 January 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Esenler EroksporO. Kayode
27'Esenler EroksporM. Faye (assist: Ö. Beyaz)
73'Esenler EroksporF. Nzaba (assist: H. Catakovic)
77'Esenler EroksporH. Catakovic (assist: Amilton)
82'Esenler EroksporH. Catakovic (assist: Amilton)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Adana Demirspor		Esenler Erokspor
3	Shots	26
1	Shots on target	11
1	Shots inside the box	23
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
0	Corners	9
0	Offsides	4
31%	Possession	69%
271	Passes	600
197	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Adana Demirspor 0.60 · Esenler Erokspor 2.84. On the pitch: 0-5.
Shots Adana Demirspor 3 · Esenler Erokspor 26; on target 1 and 11.
Esenler Erokspor kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Berkay Erdemir, Türkiye→

6.40

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 84.2%: “Esenler Erokspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.60 for Adana Demirspor, 2.84 for Esenler Erokspor.
The highest double chance value is 95.7% (X2 — draw or Esenler Erokspor win).
These values were computed from 1,190 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Adana Demirspor to win4.3%

Draw11.5%

Esenler Erokspor to win84.2%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

4	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Adana Demirspor lead at half-time2.5%

Level at half-time25.7%

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time71.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Adana Demirspor ahead or level28.1%

12 — not level at half-time74.3%

X2 — level or Esenler Erokspor ahead97.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1190 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Adana Demirspor: at least 10Actual: 4
Esenler Erokspor: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Adana Demirspor: at least 3
Esenler Erokspor: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Adana Demirspor score0.60

Attack: Adana Demirspor score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score2.84

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Adana Demirspor concede 126% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–213.3%0–312.8%0–48.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.