1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 20

Serik Spor–İstanbulspor

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 January 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'İstanbulsporM. Mamadou
30'İstanbulsporE. Ersu (own goal)
64'İstanbulsporE. Gültekin (assist: D. Sambissa)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Serik Spor		İstanbulspor
10	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	8
0	Offsides	0
38%	Possession	62%
347	Passes	559
282	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Serik Spor 1.38 · İstanbulspor 1.43. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Serik Spor 10 · İstanbulspor 15; on target 2 and 4.
İstanbulspor kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Suleyman Bahadir, Türkiye→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “İstanbulspor to win”. Second comes “Serik Spor to win” at 35.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Serik Spor, 1.43 for İstanbulspor.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,189 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Serik Spor to win35.3%

Draw27.3%

İstanbulspor to win37.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	5

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Serik Spor lead at half-time26.5%

Level at half-time42.6%

İstanbulspor lead at half-time30.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Serik Spor ahead or level69.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or İstanbulspor ahead73.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1189 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Serik Spor: at least 11Actual: 8
İstanbulspor: at least 11Actual: 5

Corners

Serik Spor: at least 3Actual: 2
İstanbulspor: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Serik Spor score1.38

Attack: Serik Spor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: İstanbulspor's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals İstanbulspor score1.43

Attack: İstanbulspor score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Serik Spor's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–29.2%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.