1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 20

Vanspor FK–Boluspor

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 9 January 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'BolusporD. Liço (assist: D. Şenyurt)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vanspor FK		Boluspor
16	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
12	Corners	1
1	Offsides	2
61%	Possession	39%
313	Passes	215
203	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vanspor FK 1.22 · Boluspor 1.43. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Vanspor FK 16 · Boluspor 10; on target 7 and 5.
Vanspor FK kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Resat Onur Coskunses, Türkiye→

5.00

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.1%: “Boluspor to win”. Second comes “Vanspor FK to win” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for Vanspor FK, 1.43 for Boluspor.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,187 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vanspor FK to win30.9%

Draw28.0%

Boluspor to win41.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	21

4	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Vanspor FK win or draw58.9%

12 — any result other than a draw72.0%

X2 — draw or Boluspor win69.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Vanspor FK lead at half-time22.8%

Level at half-time41.9%

Boluspor lead at half-time35.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Vanspor FK ahead or level64.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Boluspor ahead77.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1187 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vanspor FK: at least 14Actual: 18
Boluspor: at least 11Actual: 21

Corners

Vanspor FK: at least 3Actual: 12
Boluspor: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vanspor FK score1.22

Attack: Vanspor FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Boluspor concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Boluspor score1.43

Attack: Boluspor score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Vanspor FK concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–29.6%0–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1187 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 19 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.