1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 19

Serik Spor–Boluspor

1–4

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 December 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'BolusporA. Martynov (own goal)
13'Serik SporE. Celenk (assist: G. Akkan)
35'BolusporD. Davas (assist: R. Akanbi)
63'Serik SporSeref Özcan · red card
70'BolusporF. Hasani (assist: Lucas Lima)
90'BolusporB. Alici

Match statistics

Match statistics
Serik Spor		Boluspor
6	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	6
2	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	3
4	Offsides	2
32%	Possession	68%
237	Passes	515
163	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Serik Spor 1.13 · Boluspor 1.56. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Serik Spor 6 · Boluspor 16; on target 2 and 6.
Boluspor kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Ilker Yasin Avci, Türkiye→

4.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.5%: “Boluspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Serik Spor, 1.56 for Boluspor.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (X2 — draw or Boluspor win).
These values were computed from 1,182 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Serik Spor to win26.3%

Draw27.1%

Boluspor to win46.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Serik Spor lead at half-time17.5%

Level at half-time40.9%

Boluspor lead at half-time41.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Serik Spor ahead or level58.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Boluspor ahead82.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1182 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Serik Spor: at least 13Actual: 13
Boluspor: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Serik Spor: at least 3Actual: 1
Boluspor: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Serik Spor score1.13

Attack: Serik Spor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Boluspor concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Boluspor score1.56

Attack: Boluspor score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Serik Spor's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–210.3%0–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.