1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 19

Pendikspor–Esenler Erokspor

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 December 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pendikspor		Esenler Erokspor
13	Shots	4
3	Shots on target	0
10	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
470	Passes	307
384	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pendikspor 1.62 · Esenler Erokspor 1.09. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Pendikspor 13 · Esenler Erokspor 4; on target 3 and 0.
Pendikspor kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Oguzhan Aksu, Türkiye→

5.20

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.1%: “Pendikspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Pendikspor, 1.09 for Esenler Erokspor.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (1X — Pendikspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,181 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pendikspor to win49.1%

Draw26.6%

Esenler Erokspor to win24.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Pendikspor lead at half-time29.8%

Level at half-time42.5%

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time27.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Pendikspor ahead or level72.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Esenler Erokspor ahead70.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1181 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pendikspor: at least 12Actual: 16
Esenler Erokspor: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Pendikspor: at least 4Actual: 5
Esenler Erokspor: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pendikspor score1.62

Attack: Pendikspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.09

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Pendikspor concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–110.5%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.