1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 18

Bodrum FK–Amed

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 22 December 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodrum FK		Amed
11	Shots	12
1	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	4
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	5
4	Offsides	3
51%	Possession	49%
359	Passes	339
275	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodrum FK 1.94 · Amed 1.06. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Bodrum FK 11 · Amed 12; on target 1 and 5.

Referee

Resat Onur Coskunses, Türkiye→

5.50

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.1%: “Bodrum FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for Bodrum FK, 1.06 for Amed.
The highest double chance value is 81.4% (1X — Bodrum FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,176 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodrum FK to win58.1%

Draw23.3%

Amed to win18.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bodrum FK win or draw81.4%

12 — any result other than a draw76.7%

X2 — draw or Amed win41.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bodrum FK lead at half-time47.3%

Level at half-time37.4%

Amed lead at half-time15.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodrum FK ahead or level84.7%

12 — not level at half-time62.6%

X2 — level or Amed ahead52.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1176 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodrum FK: at least 12Actual: 9
Amed: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

Bodrum FK: at least 3Actual: 2
Amed: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodrum FK score1.94

Attack: Bodrum FK score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Amed's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amed score1.06

Attack: Amed score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Bodrum FK concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.06 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–111.0%2–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1176 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 55 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.