1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 18

Manisa F.K.–Keçiörengücü

2–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'KeçiörengücüH. Osman (assist: O. Çalışkan)
10'KeçiörengücüJ. Fernandes (penalty)
21'Manisa F.K.Y. Benrahou
22'Manisa F.K.B. Adekanye (assist: Y. Talum)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Keçiörengücü
15	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
427	Passes	324
350	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 1.53 · Keçiörengücü 1.38. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Manisa F.K. 15 · Keçiörengücü 11; on target 8 and 4.
Manisa F.K. kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Suleyman Bahadir, Türkiye→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Manisa F.K. to win”. Second comes “Keçiörengücü to win” at 33.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Manisa F.K., 1.38 for Keçiörengücü.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,171 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win40.2%

Draw26.7%

Keçiörengücü to win33.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time31.4%

Level at half-time40.8%

Keçiörengücü lead at half-time27.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level72.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Keçiörengücü ahead68.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1171 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 11Actual: 10
Keçiörengücü: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 4Actual: 3
Keçiörengücü: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.53

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Keçiörengücü's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Keçiörengücü score1.38

Attack: Keçiörengücü score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–19.6%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.