1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 17

Sakaryaspor–Hatayspor

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 15 December 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'SakaryasporB. Coban (assist: E. Demir)
71'SakaryasporL. Zwolinski (assist: E. Erdogan)
75'SakaryasporJ. Vukovic (assist: G. Kakuta)
89'HataysporO. Matur · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sakaryaspor		Hatayspor
10	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	2
3	Offsides	3
54%	Possession	46%
487	Passes	416
413	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sakaryaspor 2.39 · Hatayspor 0.87. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Sakaryaspor 10 · Hatayspor 11; on target 7 and 5.

Referee

Burak Demirkiran, Türkiye→

5.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.6%: “Sakaryaspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.39 for Sakaryaspor, 0.87 for Hatayspor.
The highest double chance value is 89.5% (1X — Sakaryaspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,166 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sakaryaspor to win71.6%

Draw17.8%

Hatayspor to win10.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time54.8%

Level at half-time33.6%

Hatayspor lead at half-time11.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Sakaryaspor ahead or level88.3%

12 — not level at half-time66.4%

X2 — level or Hatayspor ahead45.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1166 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sakaryaspor: at least 11Actual: 11
Hatayspor: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Sakaryaspor: at least 4Actual: 5
Hatayspor: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sakaryaspor score2.39

Attack: Sakaryaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hatayspor concede 40% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hatayspor score0.87

Attack: Hatayspor score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.2%2–110.5%3–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.