1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 16

Çorum FK–Pendikspor

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Monday, 8 December 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'Çorum FKY. Erdoğan (assist: O. Gürbulak)
42'Çorum FKE. Eze (assist: J. Attamah)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Çorum FK		Pendikspor
11	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	6
2	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
359	Passes	436
291	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Çorum FK 1.43 · Pendikspor 1.21. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Çorum FK 11 · Pendikspor 7; on target 4 and 2.
Pendikspor kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Alper Akarsu, Türkiye→

3.20

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.3%: “Çorum FK to win”. Second comes “Pendikspor to win” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Çorum FK, 1.21 for Pendikspor.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,156 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Çorum FK to win41.3%

Draw28.0%

Pendikspor to win30.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Çorum FK lead at half-time37.1%

Level at half-time42.2%

Pendikspor lead at half-time20.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Çorum FK ahead or level79.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Pendikspor ahead62.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1156 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Çorum FK: at least 11Actual: 13
Pendikspor: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Çorum FK: at least 4Actual: 4
Pendikspor: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Çorum FK score1.43

Attack: Çorum FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pendikspor concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pendikspor score1.21

Attack: Pendikspor score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Çorum FK concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.7%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.