1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 16

Hatayspor–Sarıyer

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Monday, 8 December 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mersin Stadyumu, Mersin

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'SarıyerJ. Anziani (assist: H. Traore)
32'SarıyerP. Djilobodji (assist: O. Bayram)
56'SarıyerP. M. Dembele (assist: A. Urie)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hatayspor		Sarıyer
7	Shots	14
1	Shots on target	11
2	Shots inside the box	12
8	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	8
2	Offsides	4
53%	Possession	47%
453	Passes	411
392	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hatayspor 1.31 · Sarıyer 1.47. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Hatayspor 7 · Sarıyer 14; on target 1 and 11.

Referee

Omer Faruk Turtay, Türkiye→

4.75

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.3%: “Sarıyer to win”. Second comes “Hatayspor to win” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Hatayspor, 1.47 for Sarıyer.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,154 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hatayspor to win32.4%

Draw27.3%

Sarıyer to win40.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Hatayspor lead at half-time35.0%

Level at half-time43.2%

Sarıyer lead at half-time21.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Hatayspor ahead or level78.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Sarıyer ahead65.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1154 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hatayspor: at least 11Actual: 13
Sarıyer: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Hatayspor: at least 3Actual: 2
Sarıyer: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hatayspor score1.31

Attack: Hatayspor score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sarıyer's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sarıyer score1.47

Attack: Sarıyer score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hatayspor concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–29.6%2–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.