1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 16

Manisa F.K.–Vanspor FK

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mumin Ozkasap Spor Tesisleri, Manisa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Vanspor FKXesc (assist: Emir Bars)
60'Manisa F.K.Loïs Diony (penalty)
76'Vanspor FKLucas Africo · red card
78'Manisa F.K.Loïs Diony (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Vanspor FK
11	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	2
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	2
3	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
389	Passes	363
312	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 1.46 · Vanspor FK 1.22. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Manisa F.K. 11 · Vanspor FK 8; on target 7 and 4.

Referee

Ilker Yasin Avci, Türkiye→

4.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.8%: “Manisa F.K. to win”. Second comes “Vanspor FK to win” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Manisa F.K., 1.22 for Vanspor FK.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,152 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win41.8%

Draw27.8%

Vanspor FK to win30.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time35.4%

Level at half-time43.0%

Vanspor FK lead at half-time21.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level78.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Vanspor FK ahead64.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1152 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 12Actual: 13
Vanspor FK: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 4Actual: 4
Vanspor FK: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.46

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vanspor FK concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vanspor FK score1.22

Attack: Vanspor FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.8%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.