1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 16

Iğdır FK–Adana Demirspor

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Iğdır FKM. Fofana
32'Iğdır FKG. Bruno (assist: G. Vural)
56'Adana DemirsporS. Gülay (assist: K. Kucuk)
64'Iğdır FKG. Bruno (assist: G. Vural)
68'Iğdır FKG. Bruno

Match statistics

Match statistics
Iğdır FK		Adana Demirspor
23	Shots	9
8	Shots on target	5
18	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
14	Corners	3
8	Offsides	0
73%	Possession	27%
541	Passes	205
475	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Iğdır FK 3.35 · Adana Demirspor 0.30. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Iğdır FK 23 · Adana Demirspor 9; on target 8 and 5.
Iğdır FK kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

Davut Dakul Celik, Türkiye→

5.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 93.7%: “Iğdır FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 5.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.35 for Iğdır FK, 0.30 for Adana Demirspor.
The highest double chance value is 99.0% (1X — Iğdır FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,150 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Iğdır FK to win93.7%

Draw5.4%

Adana Demirspor to win1.0%

When the model has said 90–95% in the past, 46 of 48 predictions were correct (95.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	4

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Iğdır FK lead at half-time71.3%

Level at half-time25.1%

Adana Demirspor lead at half-time3.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Iğdır FK ahead or level96.3%

12 — not level at half-time74.9%

X2 — level or Adana Demirspor ahead28.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1150 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Iğdır FK: at least 11Actual: 9
Adana Demirspor: at least 10Actual: 4

Corners

Iğdır FK: at least 6Actual: 14
Adana Demirspor: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Iğdır FK score3.35

Attack: Iğdır FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Adana Demirspor concede 109% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 3.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Adana Demirspor score0.30

Attack: Adana Demirspor score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Iğdır FK concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–017.3%2–014.9%4–014.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.