1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 16

Esenler Erokspor–Sakaryaspor

4–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Esenler EroksporAmilton (assist: O. Kayode)
43'SakaryasporB. Coban (assist: Serkan Yavuz)
53'Esenler EroksporO. Kayode (assist: E. Alic)
79'Esenler EroksporO. Kayode (assist: G. Kanga)
90'Esenler EroksporH. Catakovic (assist: E. Alic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Esenler Erokspor		Sakaryaspor
10	Shots	4
7	Shots on target	1
5	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
414	Passes	332
344	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Esenler Erokspor 2.03 · Sakaryaspor 1.10. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Esenler Erokspor 10 · Sakaryaspor 4; on target 7 and 1.
Esenler Erokspor kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Burak Pakkan, Türkiye→

5.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.9%: “Esenler Erokspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.03 for Esenler Erokspor, 1.10 for Sakaryaspor.
The highest double chance value is 81.5% (1X — Esenler Erokspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,149 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Esenler Erokspor to win58.9%

Draw22.6%

Sakaryaspor to win18.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time44.0%

Level at half-time38.2%

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time17.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Esenler Erokspor ahead or level82.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.8%

X2 — level or Sakaryaspor ahead56.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1149 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Esenler Erokspor: at least 12Actual: 13
Sakaryaspor: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Esenler Erokspor: at least 4Actual: 5
Sakaryaspor: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score2.03

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sakaryaspor score1.10

Attack: Sakaryaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%2–111.0%2–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.