1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 16

Serik Spor–Keçiörengücü

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'KeçiörengücüJ. Fernandes (penalty)
23'KeçiörengücüF. Ezeh (assist: J. Fernandes)
49'KeçiörengücüM. Diouf (assist: J. Fernandes)
76'Serik SporI. Berkovsky (assist: G. Altıparmak)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Serik Spor		Keçiörengücü
12	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	7
6	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
63%	Possession	37%
545	Passes	317
467	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Serik Spor 1.49 · Keçiörengücü 1.21. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Serik Spor 12 · Keçiörengücü 15; on target 1 and 7.
Serik Spor kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Abdullah Bugra Taskinsoy, Türkiye→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “Serik Spor to win”. Second comes “Keçiörengücü to win” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Serik Spor, 1.21 for Keçiörengücü.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,147 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Serik Spor to win42.8%

Draw27.6%

Keçiörengücü to win29.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Serik Spor lead at half-time36.5%

Level at half-time42.5%

Keçiörengücü lead at half-time21.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Serik Spor ahead or level79.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Keçiörengücü ahead63.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1147 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Serik Spor: at least 11Actual: 10
Keçiörengücü: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Serik Spor: at least 3Actual: 3
Keçiörengücü: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Serik Spor score1.49

Attack: Serik Spor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Keçiörengücü's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Keçiörengücü score1.21

Attack: Keçiörengücü score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Serik Spor's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–19.9%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.