1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 15

Sivasspor–Boluspor

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 November 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'BolusporTurker Dirdiroglu · red card
45'SivassporC. Çelik (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sivasspor		Boluspor
15	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	4
5	Offsides	1
39%	Possession	61%
308	Passes	473
232	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sivasspor 1.10 · Boluspor 1.45. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Sivasspor 15 · Boluspor 9; on target 4 and 2.
Boluspor kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Direnc Tonusluoglu, Türkiye→

5.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.5%: “Boluspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for Sivasspor, 1.45 for Boluspor.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (X2 — draw or Boluspor win).
These values were computed from 1,143 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sivasspor to win27.3%

Draw28.2%

Boluspor to win44.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

20	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	8

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sivasspor lead at half-time15.9%

Level at half-time43.9%

Boluspor lead at half-time40.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Sivasspor ahead or level59.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Boluspor ahead84.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1143 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sivasspor: at least 12Actual: 20
Boluspor: at least 11Actual: 18

Corners

Sivasspor: at least 4Actual: 3
Boluspor: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sivasspor score1.10

Attack: Sivasspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Boluspor concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Boluspor score1.45

Attack: Boluspor score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Sivasspor's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%0–110.5%1–29.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.