1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 15

Erzurumspor FK–İstanbulspor

4–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu, Erzurum

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Erzurumspor FKM. Fettahoglu (assist: O. Ovacikli)
53'Erzurumspor FKE. Tozlu (assist: S. Akgun)
69'Erzurumspor FKE. Tozlu (assist: O. Ovacikli)
90'Erzurumspor FKA. Gerxhaliu (assist: S. Akgun)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Erzurumspor FK		İstanbulspor
22	Shots	6
10	Shots on target	2
17	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
483	Passes	390
426	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Erzurumspor FK 1.60 · İstanbulspor 0.90. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Erzurumspor FK 22 · İstanbulspor 6; on target 10 and 2.
Erzurumspor FK kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Ozan Ergun, Türkiye→

5.00

yellows per match

0.60

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.6%: “Erzurumspor FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Erzurumspor FK, 0.90 for İstanbulspor.
The highest double chance value is 80.3% (1X — Erzurumspor FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,139 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Erzurumspor FK to win53.6%

Draw26.7%

İstanbulspor to win19.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Erzurumspor FK lead at half-time34.9%

Level at half-time46.2%

İstanbulspor lead at half-time18.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Erzurumspor FK ahead or level81.1%

12 — not level at half-time53.8%

X2 — level or İstanbulspor ahead65.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1139 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Erzurumspor FK: at least 11Actual: 10
İstanbulspor: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Erzurumspor FK: at least 4Actual: 8
İstanbulspor: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Erzurumspor FK score1.60

Attack: Erzurumspor FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: İstanbulspor's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals İstanbulspor score0.90

Attack: İstanbulspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Erzurumspor FK concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–012.4%2–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.