1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 15

Amed–Esenler Erokspor

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 28 November 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'Esenler EroksporM. Okyar (assist: H. Catakovic)
78'AmedA. Biyogo Poko (assist: D. Moreno)
87'AmedMbaye Diagne (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Amed		Esenler Erokspor
17	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
429	Passes	332
350	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Amed 1.72 · Esenler Erokspor 1.18. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Amed 17 · Esenler Erokspor 6; on target 4 and 3.
Amed kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Umit Ozturk, Türkiye→

5.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.7%: “Amed to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for Amed, 1.18 for Esenler Erokspor.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (1X — Amed win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,137 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Amed to win49.7%

Draw25.6%

Esenler Erokspor to win24.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	10

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Amed lead at half-time37.3%

Level at half-time40.1%

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time22.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Amed ahead or level77.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Esenler Erokspor ahead62.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1137 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Amed: at least 10Actual: 12
Esenler Erokspor: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Amed: at least 4Actual: 7
Esenler Erokspor: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Amed score1.72

Attack: Amed score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.18

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Amed concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.6%1–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.