1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 14

Serik Spor–Sarıyer

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 24 November 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Serik SporKirill Gotsuk
58'Serik SporI. Berkovsky
62'Serik SporI. Berkovsky (assist: J. Amaral)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Serik Spor		Sarıyer
13	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	3
6	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
366	Passes	548
293	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Serik Spor 1.53 · Sarıyer 1.15. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Serik Spor 13 · Sarıyer 9; on target 7 and 1.
Sarıyer kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Burak Pakkan, Türkiye→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.3%: “Serik Spor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Serik Spor, 1.15 for Sarıyer.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (1X — Serik Spor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,136 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Serik Spor to win45.3%

Draw27.4%

Sarıyer to win27.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Serik Spor lead at half-time37.6%

Level at half-time45.4%

Sarıyer lead at half-time17.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Serik Spor ahead or level83.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.6%

X2 — level or Sarıyer ahead62.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1136 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Serik Spor: at least 13Actual: 9
Sarıyer: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

Serik Spor: at least 3Actual: 2
Sarıyer: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Serik Spor score1.53

Attack: Serik Spor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sarıyer's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sarıyer score1.15

Attack: Sarıyer score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Serik Spor's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–110.1%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.