1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 14

Esenler Erokspor–Sivasspor

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

58'Esenler EroksporH. Catakovic (assist: O. Kayode)
71'Esenler EroksporR. Niyaz (assist: H. Catakovic)
83'SivassporA. Badji (assist: U. Çiftçi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Esenler Erokspor		Sivasspor
15	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	6
11	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
399	Passes	391
309	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Esenler Erokspor 1.67 · Sivasspor 0.94. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Esenler Erokspor 15 · Sivasspor 17; on target 4 and 6.

Referee

Alper Akarsu, Türkiye→

3.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.1%: “Esenler Erokspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Esenler Erokspor, 0.94 for Sivasspor.
The highest double chance value is 80.1% (1X — Esenler Erokspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,135 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Esenler Erokspor to win54.1%

Draw26.0%

Sivasspor to win19.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time44.7%

Level at half-time41.5%

Sivasspor lead at half-time13.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Esenler Erokspor ahead or level86.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Sivasspor ahead55.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1135 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Esenler Erokspor: at least 11Actual: 7
Sivasspor: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Esenler Erokspor: at least 3Actual: 7
Sivasspor: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.67

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Sivasspor's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sivasspor score0.94

Attack: Sivasspor score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–011.5%2–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.