1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 14

İstanbulspor–Sakaryaspor

3–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Istanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'İstanbulsporE. Gültekin (assist: D. Sambissa)
45'SakaryasporW. Ben Yedder (penalty)
53'İstanbulsporE. Gültekin (penalty)
61'SakaryasporS. Dursun (assist: M. Cihan)
90'SakaryasporL. Zwolinski (assist: Serkan Yavuz)
90'İstanbulsporÃ. Duymaz

Match statistics

Match statistics
İstanbulspor		Sakaryaspor
14	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
48%	Possession	52%
391	Passes	432
320	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: İstanbulspor 1.94 · Sakaryaspor 1.12. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots İstanbulspor 14 · Sakaryaspor 8; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

Adnan Deniz Kayatepe, Türkiye→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.4%: “İstanbulspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for İstanbulspor, 1.12 for Sakaryaspor.
The highest double chance value is 79.9% (1X — İstanbulspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,131 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

İstanbulspor to win56.4%

Draw23.5%

Sakaryaspor to win20.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

İstanbulspor lead at half-time43.3%

Level at half-time39.7%

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time17.0%

First-half double chance

1X — İstanbulspor ahead or level83.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Sakaryaspor ahead56.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1131 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

İstanbulspor: at least 12Actual: 9
Sakaryaspor: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

İstanbulspor: at least 4Actual: 3
Sakaryaspor: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals İstanbulspor score1.94

Attack: İstanbulspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sakaryaspor score1.12

Attack: Sakaryaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: İstanbulspor's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–110.9%2–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.