1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 14

Manisa F.K.–Adana Demirspor

5–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Friday, 21 November 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'Manisa F.K.Y. Yuce (assist: M. Kiprit)
33'Manisa F.K.B. Suleyman (assist: Y. Talum)
40'Manisa F.K.Y. Talum (assist: B. Suleyman)
68'Manisa F.K.Osman Kahraman (assist: A. Sen)
83'Manisa F.K.Loïs Diony (assist: M. Cissokho)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Adana Demirspor
14	Shots	6
8	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	1
4	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
512	Passes	299
448	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 3.24 · Adana Demirspor 0.43. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Manisa F.K. 14 · Adana Demirspor 6; on target 8 and 2.
Manisa F.K. kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Abdullah Bugra Taskinsoy, Türkiye→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 91.0%: “Manisa F.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 7.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.24 for Manisa F.K., 0.43 for Adana Demirspor.
The highest double chance value is 98.1% (1X — Manisa F.K. win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,127 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win91.0%

Draw7.1%

Adana Demirspor to win1.9%

When the model has said 90–95% in the past, 47 of 49 predictions were correct (95.9%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time71.4%

Level at half-time26.3%

Adana Demirspor lead at half-time2.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level97.7%

12 — not level at half-time73.7%

X2 — level or Adana Demirspor ahead28.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1127 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 11Actual: 11
Adana Demirspor: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 5Actual: 5
Adana Demirspor: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score3.24

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Adana Demirspor concede 110% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 3.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Adana Demirspor score0.43

Attack: Adana Demirspor score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–015.2%2–013.6%4–012.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.