1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 13

Adana Demirspor–Keçiörengücü

2–7

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'KeçiörengücüO. Roshi (assist: M. Diouf)
12'KeçiörengücüM. Diouf (assist: O. Roshi)
24'KeçiörengücüJ. Fernandes (penalty)
46'KeçiörengücüO. Çalışkan
55'KeçiörengücüM. Diouf (assist: İ. Akdağ)
62'Adana DemirsporS. Kavrazlı

Match statistics

Match statistics
Adana Demirspor		Keçiörengücü
15	Shots	18
8	Shots on target	15
6	Shots inside the box	15
8	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	2
1	Offsides	6
44%	Possession	56%
334	Passes	433
278	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Adana Demirspor 0.68 · Keçiörengücü 2.35. On the pitch: 2-7.
Shots Adana Demirspor 15 · Keçiörengücü 18; on target 8 and 15.
Keçiörengücü kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Fatih Tokail, Türkiye→

4.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.7%: “Keçiörengücü to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.68 for Adana Demirspor, 2.35 for Keçiörengücü.
The highest double chance value is 92.3% (X2 — draw or Keçiörengücü win).
These values were computed from 1,123 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Adana Demirspor to win7.7%

Draw16.7%

Keçiörengücü to win75.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Adana Demirspor lead at half-time10.9%

Level at half-time35.6%

Keçiörengücü lead at half-time53.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Adana Demirspor ahead or level46.5%

12 — not level at half-time64.4%

X2 — level or Keçiörengücü ahead89.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1123 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Adana Demirspor: at least 9Actual: 9
Keçiörengücü: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Adana Demirspor: at least 2Actual: 3
Keçiörengücü: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Adana Demirspor score0.68

Attack: Adana Demirspor score below the league average (43% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Keçiörengücü's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Keçiörengücü score2.35

Attack: Keçiörengücü score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Adana Demirspor concede 99% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–213.9%0–310.8%0–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.