1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 13

Bodrum FK–İstanbulspor

5–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 7 November 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Bodrum FKP. Brazao (assist: Fredy)
45'Bodrum FKT. Seferi (assist: M. Mohammed)
54'Bodrum FKFredy (penalty)
68'Bodrum FKT. Seferi
90'Bodrum FKE. Bilsel (assist: Yusuf Sertkaya)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodrum FK		İstanbulspor
15	Shots	8
8	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	3
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	2
2	Offsides	6
49%	Possession	51%
349	Passes	369
280	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodrum FK 1.75 · İstanbulspor 0.93. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Bodrum FK 15 · İstanbulspor 8; on target 8 and 5.

Referee

Muhammetali Metoglu, Türkiye→

6.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.6%: “Bodrum FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for Bodrum FK, 0.93 for İstanbulspor.
The highest double chance value is 81.6% (1X — Bodrum FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,118 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodrum FK to win56.6%

Draw25.0%

İstanbulspor to win18.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Bodrum FK lead at half-time36.9%

Level at half-time42.6%

İstanbulspor lead at half-time20.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodrum FK ahead or level79.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or İstanbulspor ahead63.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1118 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodrum FK: at least 12Actual: 12
İstanbulspor: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Bodrum FK: at least 4Actual: 2
İstanbulspor: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodrum FK score1.75

Attack: Bodrum FK score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: İstanbulspor concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals İstanbulspor score0.93

Attack: İstanbulspor score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Bodrum FK concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–011.3%2–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.