1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 12

Vanspor FK–Sakaryaspor

3–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 November 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Vanspor FKXesc (assist: Sabahattin Destici)
40'SakaryasporW. Ben Yedder (assist: G. Kakuta)
45'Vanspor FKM. Özcan (assist: F. Genç)
65'SakaryasporB. Coban (assist: E. Erdogan)
88'Vanspor FKIván Cédric (assist: B. C. Kara)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vanspor FK		Sakaryaspor
11	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	4
5	Offsides	3
56%	Possession	44%
347	Passes	267
282	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vanspor FK 1.58 · Sakaryaspor 1.06. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Vanspor FK 11 · Sakaryaspor 10; on target 7 and 4.
Vanspor FK kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Davut Dakul Celik, Türkiye→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.0%: “Vanspor FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Vanspor FK, 1.06 for Sakaryaspor.
The highest double chance value is 76.0% (1X — Vanspor FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,114 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vanspor FK to win49.0%

Draw26.9%

Sakaryaspor to win24.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Vanspor FK lead at half-time30.1%

Level at half-time43.9%

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time26.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Vanspor FK ahead or level74.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Sakaryaspor ahead69.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1114 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vanspor FK: at least 14Actual: 17
Sakaryaspor: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Vanspor FK: at least 3Actual: 9
Sakaryaspor: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vanspor FK score1.58

Attack: Vanspor FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sakaryaspor score1.06

Attack: Sakaryaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vanspor FK concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–110.4%1–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.