1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 12

Manisa F.K.–Amed

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 November 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mumin Ozkasap Spor Tesisleri, Manisa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'AmedM. Uçar (assist: A. Koc)
63'AmedA. Traoré
89'AmedF. Afena-Gyan (assist: A. Traoré)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Amed
9	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	5
3	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
427	Passes	368
344	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 1.37 · Amed 1.53. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Manisa F.K. 9 · Amed 12; on target 2 and 5.

Referee

Melih Aldemir, Türkiye→

5.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.5%: “Amed to win”. Second comes “Manisa F.K. to win” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Manisa F.K., 1.53 for Amed.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,111 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win32.8%

Draw26.7%

Amed to win40.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. win or draw59.5%

12 — any result other than a draw73.3%

X2 — draw or Amed win67.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time23.5%

Level at half-time42.7%

Amed lead at half-time33.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level66.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Amed ahead76.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1111 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 12Actual: 16
Amed: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 3Actual: 3
Amed: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.37

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amed concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amed score1.53

Attack: Amed score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–29.7%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1111 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 49 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.