1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 12

İstanbulspor–Pendikspor

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 November 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Istanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'PendiksporF. Doğan · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
İstanbulspor		Pendikspor
16	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	7
10	Shots inside the box	6
7	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	4
3	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
449	Passes	324
383	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: İstanbulspor 1.53 · Pendikspor 1.20. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots İstanbulspor 16 · Pendikspor 12; on target 4 and 7.
İstanbulspor kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Gurcan Hasova, Türkiye→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.2%: “İstanbulspor to win”. Second comes “Pendikspor to win” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for İstanbulspor, 1.20 for Pendikspor.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,111 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

İstanbulspor to win44.2%

Draw27.3%

Pendikspor to win28.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

İstanbulspor lead at half-time44.0%

Level at half-time40.2%

Pendikspor lead at half-time15.8%

First-half double chance

1X — İstanbulspor ahead or level84.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Pendikspor ahead56.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1111 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

İstanbulspor: at least 11Actual: 13
Pendikspor: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

İstanbulspor: at least 4Actual: 3
Pendikspor: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals İstanbulspor score1.53

Attack: İstanbulspor score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Pendikspor concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pendikspor score1.20

Attack: Pendikspor score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: İstanbulspor concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–110.0%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.