1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 11

Bandırmaspor–Esenler Erokspor

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 October 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'BandırmasporD. Ndongala · red card
45+1'BandırmasporDouglas Tanque · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bandırmaspor		Esenler Erokspor
6	Shots	10
0	Shots on target	1
3	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
24%	Possession	76%
176	Passes	560
111	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bandırmaspor 1.49 · Esenler Erokspor 1.25. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Bandırmaspor 6 · Esenler Erokspor 10; on target 0 and 1.
Esenler Erokspor kept the ball more (76%).

Referee

Batuhan Kolak, Türkiye→

9.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.0%: “Bandırmaspor to win”. Second comes “Esenler Erokspor to win” at 30.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Bandırmaspor, 1.25 for Esenler Erokspor.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,103 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bandırmaspor to win42.0%

Draw27.4%

Esenler Erokspor to win30.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	3

2	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bandırmaspor lead at half-time30.9%

Level at half-time40.3%

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time28.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Bandırmaspor ahead or level71.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Esenler Erokspor ahead69.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1103 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bandırmaspor: at least 11Actual: 11
Esenler Erokspor: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Bandırmaspor: at least 4Actual: 4
Esenler Erokspor: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bandırmaspor score1.49

Attack: Bandırmaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.25

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Bandırmaspor concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–19.8%1–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.