1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 11

Adana Demirspor–Vanspor FK

2–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Vanspor FKXesc (assist: E. Secgin)
13'Vanspor FKXesc (assist: Iván Cédric)
50'Vanspor FKB. C. Kara (assist: A. Vlachomitros)
53'Vanspor FKIván Cédric (assist: Jefferson)
74'Adana DemirsporK. Kucuk (assist: A. Bolat)
83'Adana DemirsporS. Kavrazlı

Match statistics

Match statistics
Adana Demirspor		Vanspor FK
10	Shots	21
6	Shots on target	10
2	Shots inside the box	17
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	3
2	Offsides	3
32%	Possession	68%
220	Passes	493
164	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Adana Demirspor 0.68 · Vanspor FK 1.90. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots Adana Demirspor 10 · Vanspor FK 21; on target 6 and 10.
Vanspor FK kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Suleyman Bahadir, Türkiye→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.0%: “Vanspor FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.68 for Adana Demirspor, 1.90 for Vanspor FK.
The highest double chance value is 88.9% (X2 — draw or Vanspor FK win).
These values were computed from 1,099 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Adana Demirspor to win11.1%

Draw21.9%

Vanspor FK to win67.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Adana Demirspor lead at half-time18.5%

Level at half-time43.8%

Vanspor FK lead at half-time37.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Adana Demirspor ahead or level62.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Vanspor FK ahead81.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1099 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Adana Demirspor: at least 10Actual: 13
Vanspor FK: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Adana Demirspor: at least 3Actual: 2
Vanspor FK: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Adana Demirspor score0.68

Attack: Adana Demirspor score below the league average (45% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vanspor FK concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vanspor FK score1.90

Attack: Vanspor FK score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Adana Demirspor concede 87% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–214.3%0–113.9%1–111.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.