1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 10

Manisa F.K.–Erzurumspor FK

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 October 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'Manisa F.K.Loïs Diony (assist: J. Lindseth)
63'Erzurumspor FKM. Rodriguez (assist: G. Crociata)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Erzurumspor FK
8	Shots	6
2	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
375	Passes	397
281	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 1.20 · Erzurumspor FK 1.37. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Manisa F.K. 8 · Erzurumspor FK 6; on target 2 and 2.

Referee

Gurcan Hasova, Türkiye→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “Erzurumspor FK to win”. Second comes “Manisa F.K. to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Manisa F.K., 1.37 for Erzurumspor FK.
The highest double chance value is 71.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,088 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win31.5%

Draw28.6%

Erzurumspor FK to win39.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	5

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time19.6%

Level at half-time44.1%

Erzurumspor FK lead at half-time36.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level63.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Erzurumspor FK ahead80.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1088 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 12Actual: 14
Erzurumspor FK: at least 12Actual: 5

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 4Actual: 5
Erzurumspor FK: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.20

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Erzurumspor FK concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Erzurumspor FK score1.37

Attack: Erzurumspor FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%0–19.6%1–29.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.