1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 8

İstanbulspor–Boluspor

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 September 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Istanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'İstanbulsporM. Krstovski
68'BolusporF. Hasani (assist: M. Çaylı)

Match statistics

Match statistics
İstanbulspor		Boluspor
6	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	7
3	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	9
2	Offsides	3
31%	Possession	69%
241	Passes	533
161	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: İstanbulspor 1.55 · Boluspor 1.30. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots İstanbulspor 6 · Boluspor 18; on target 4 and 7.
Boluspor kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Direnc Tonusluoglu, Türkiye→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.5%: “İstanbulspor to win”. Second comes “Boluspor to win” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for İstanbulspor, 1.30 for Boluspor.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,070 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

İstanbulspor to win42.5%

Draw26.8%

Boluspor to win30.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

İstanbulspor lead at half-time35.0%

Level at half-time41.6%

Boluspor lead at half-time23.4%

First-half double chance

1X — İstanbulspor ahead or level76.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Boluspor ahead65.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1070 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

İstanbulspor: at least 13Actual: 16
Boluspor: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

İstanbulspor: at least 4Actual: 1
Boluspor: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals İstanbulspor score1.55

Attack: İstanbulspor score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Boluspor concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Boluspor score1.30

Attack: Boluspor score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: İstanbulspor's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–19.9%1–28.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.