1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 7

Esenler Erokspor–İstanbulspor

5–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 24 September 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

47'Esenler EroksporBerat Luş (assist: Amilton)
60'Esenler EroksporBerat Luş
70'Esenler EroksporBerat Luş (assist: Amilton)
75'Esenler EroksporBerat Luş (assist: O. Kayode)
85'Esenler EroksporH. Catakovic (assist: A. Karaman)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Esenler Erokspor		İstanbulspor
11	Shots	5
8	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
499	Passes	388
428	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Esenler Erokspor 1.39 · İstanbulspor 1.49. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Esenler Erokspor 11 · İstanbulspor 5; on target 8 and 1.
Esenler Erokspor kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Fatih Tokail, Türkiye→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.0%: “İstanbulspor to win”. Second comes “Esenler Erokspor to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Esenler Erokspor, 1.49 for İstanbulspor.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,063 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Esenler Erokspor to win34.1%

Draw26.9%

İstanbulspor to win39.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time27.8%

Level at half-time41.1%

İstanbulspor lead at half-time31.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Esenler Erokspor ahead or level68.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or İstanbulspor ahead72.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1063 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Esenler Erokspor: at least 10Actual: 9
İstanbulspor: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Esenler Erokspor: at least 4Actual: 2
İstanbulspor: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.39

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: İstanbulspor concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals İstanbulspor score1.49

Attack: İstanbulspor score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–29.5%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.