1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 2

Serik Spor–Ümraniyespor

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 15 August 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Serik SporMarcos Silva (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Serik Spor		Ümraniyespor
6	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	9
1	Offsides	0
30%	Possession	70%
227	Passes	524
147	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots Serik Spor 6 · Ümraniyespor 9; on target 2 and 4.
Ümraniyespor kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

D. Tonusluoglu→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

One of the teams has only 1 matches in this league (at least 10 are required). A percentage produced from thin data is a guess dressed as certainty — we don't show it.

21	Fouls	11

5	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.