2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

SSV Ulm 1846–Preußen Münster

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Donaustadion, Ulm

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'SSV Ulm 1846S. Telalovic (assist: F. Higl)
54'Preußen MünsterYassine Bouchama
75'Preußen MünsterDaniel Kyerewaa
85'SSV Ulm 1846L. Röser (assist: L. Stoll)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SSV Ulm 1846		Preußen Münster
7	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	7
7	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
0	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
508	Passes	292
436	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SSV Ulm 1846 1.23 · Preußen Münster 1.23. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots SSV Ulm 1846 7 · Preußen Münster 12; on target 3 and 7.
SSV Ulm 1846 kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

P. Alt→

5.29

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.4%: “Preußen Münster to win”. Second comes “SSV Ulm 1846 to win” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for SSV Ulm 1846, 1.58 for Preußen Münster.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 909 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SSV Ulm 1846 to win27.8%

Draw26.8%

Preußen Münster to win45.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

SSV Ulm 1846 lead at half-time35.4%

Level at half-time43.5%

Preußen Münster lead at half-time21.1%

First-half double chance

1X — SSV Ulm 1846 ahead or level78.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Preußen Münster ahead64.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 909 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SSV Ulm 1846: at least 11Actual: 12
Preußen Münster: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

SSV Ulm 1846: at least 5
Preußen Münster: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SSV Ulm 1846 score1.23

Attack: SSV Ulm 1846 score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Preußen Münster score1.23

Attack: Preußen Münster score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SSV Ulm 1846's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–210.2%0–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.