2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

Karlsruher SC–SC Paderborn 07

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BBBank Wildpark, Karlsruhe

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'Karlsruher SCL. Egloff
54'Karlsruher SCL. Egloff
72'Karlsruher SCM. Franke (assist: M. Wanitzek)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Karlsruher SC		SC Paderborn 07
9	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
417	Passes	534
338	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Karlsruher SC 1.51 · SC Paderborn 07 1.57. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Karlsruher SC 9 · SC Paderborn 07 17; on target 6 and 2.
SC Paderborn 07 kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

D. Aytekin→

3.42

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.6%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Karlsruher SC, 2.07 for SC Paderborn 07.
The highest double chance value is 79.1% (X2 — draw or SC Paderborn 07 win).
These values were computed from 909 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Karlsruher SC to win20.9%

Draw22.6%

SC Paderborn 07 to win56.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time41.1%

Level at half-time38.6%

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time20.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Karlsruher SC ahead or level79.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.4%

X2 — level or SC Paderborn 07 ahead58.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 909 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Karlsruher SC: at least 10Actual: 5
SC Paderborn 07: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Karlsruher SC: at least 4Actual: 2
SC Paderborn 07: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.51

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score1.57

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.7%1–110.5%0–27.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.