2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

SV Darmstadt 98–SSV Jahn Regensburg

3–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Darmstadt

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'SSV Jahn RegensburgL. Wurm
57'SV Darmstadt 98F. Hornby
65'SV Darmstadt 98F. Hornby (assist: K. Corredor)
90+3'SV Darmstadt 98A. Muller

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Darmstadt 98		SSV Jahn Regensburg
16	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	7
0	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
410	Passes	330
327	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Darmstadt 98 2.20 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.75. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots SV Darmstadt 98 16 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 17; on target 5 and 4.
SV Darmstadt 98 kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

N. Winter→

4.74

yellows per match

0.41

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.1%: “SV Darmstadt 98 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.35 for SV Darmstadt 98, 0.99 for SSV Jahn Regensburg.
The highest double chance value is 87.1% (1X — SV Darmstadt 98 win or draw).
These values were computed from 909 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Darmstadt 98 to win68.1%

Draw19.0%

SSV Jahn Regensburg to win12.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

SV Darmstadt 98 lead at half-time54.8%

Level at half-time35.7%

SSV Jahn Regensburg lead at half-time9.5%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Darmstadt 98 ahead or level90.5%

12 — not level at half-time64.3%

X2 — level or SSV Jahn Regensburg ahead45.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 909 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 10Actual: 13
SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 13Actual: 10

Corners

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 5Actual: 6
SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Darmstadt 98 score2.20

Attack: SV Darmstadt 98 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SSV Jahn Regensburg concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SSV Jahn Regensburg score0.75

Attack: SSV Jahn Regensburg score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SV Darmstadt 98's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.7%2–09.9%1–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.